Will Windows 8 be deja vu for hard drive sales?

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Much has been said about the launch of Windows 8, and its optimistic impact on PC sales, and thus hard disk drive shipments for the upcoming year, so I thought I would look at the historical impact of Windows launches on client (desktop + notebook) storage.

Going back to the second quarter of 1998 when Microsoft launched Windows 98 through Windows 7 in the third quarter of 2009, there are some obvious trends. First, let’s note that the upward trend of client hard drive shipments over the 11 year period is a factor of many things:  increased adoption and use of personal computers in general, the rise of the notebook, the expansion of the internet, the rise of computing in countries like China, India, Brazil, the middle east, the advent of external storage, and much more. So, this chart by no means links specifically Windows launches to client hard drive sales directly, but the data provides some interesting facts:

• On average, total client hard drive shipments increased the most the 3rd quarter (6 to 9 months) after launch
• On average, total client hard drive shipments increased the least the quarter Windows launched or the 4th quarter after launch.
• Percentage wise, Windows Me had the lowest impact on client hard drive shipment growth.
• Percentage wise, Windows 98 had the highest impact on client hard drive shipment growth.
• Percentage wise, Windows 98 had the highest impact on desktop hard drive shipment growth.
• Percentage wise, Windows Vista had the highest impact on notebook hard drive shipment growth.